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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "serious ramifications" in August if Russia's president carried on obstructing truce talks, Trump ultimately enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's ability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

But, with his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for the conflict, that was drafted by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's initiative would effectively favor the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan in reality weaken that essential independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business past, the former president persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere border issue, implying handing Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will appease the ruler. Yet, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a charred area of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear goal to eliminate it so it stops acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although keeping in position the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unable to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions severely weakened.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that are a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, providing Putin a clear route to Kyiv if he eventually opt to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make future hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its military from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, the plan sets no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "Every extremist belief system and actions must be rejected and prohibited." As if to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no obligation that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that Putin has breached comparable accords in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied land in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the initiative threatens a "immediate unified defense action" if the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the particulars include unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prohibit member states from positioning troops on the nation's land, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

A separate parallel deal apparently would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a powerful national defense – Ukraine's primary deterrent against additional invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of alliance members, including the US administration, to react with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not