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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|