Past this Pageantry of Putin's New Delhi Trip: The India-Russia Bond That Has Frayed.
The diplomatic language and imagery from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest official trip to India hinted at a strong two-way partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the statesmen took a ride together, echoing a known political style. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and described the Indo-Russian connection as a "lodestar", built on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth trip to India over his quarter-century tenure and his 20th meeting with Modi since the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.
A Gap Between Symbolism and Reality
Nevertheless, a clear gap exists between the symbolism and the substance of this partnership. Although Putin vowed "continuous fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are in fact buying a reduced amount of Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two nations signed numerous memorandums of understanding in areas like mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and academic collaboration. But, expected announcements on major military deals did not materialize. India has not concluded any major defence agreements with Russia following the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a situation fueled by holdups in shipments of equipment and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own defence requirements.
A Partnership Losing Strategic Heft
This all points to that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer holds the same strategic heft it previously possessed. During the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained special barter arrangements and market access to the USSR and its allies. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both nations have sought to maintain a appearance of this special bond through a "special and privileged" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the reality is that their engagement does not have the same importance as New Delhi has significantly deepened relations with the Western world.
Broadening and Inherent Tensions
New Delhi is not expected to cut its important relationship with Moscow. But, as Western coercion mounts on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to diversify the relationship into other sectors. On Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, designed to make their ties "broader, balanced and long-lasting". This includes enhancing market access for Indian goods to rectify a trade imbalance strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two covers several strategically important fields – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Affinity and Seen Dependability
At an sentimental plane, a high degree of closeness with Russia persists, especially among older generations of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal support during the earlier era. This has resulted in a certain level of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid recent frictions between India and the US, in which American officials have issued sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a more dependable partner.
This challenge, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive declaration issued during Putin's India trip made no reference to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically referred to the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt actions regarding the conflict have been minimal.
Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Tightrope
This dynamic does not belie the underlying contradictions in India's international stance. The country is set to conclude a trade deal with the EU, following a similar pact with the UK this year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to boost people-to-people exchanges between India and Russia.
How will India square this circle? New Delhi will be banking that current peace negotiations will succeed, leading to a cessation of hostilities and the removal of a major thorn in its ties with the West. But, even if a peace deal is reached, if it falls short of a "just peace" that upholds Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, critical examination of the India-Russia alliance will certainly continue in European and American capitals.