Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.