Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
