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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.