From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”