‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply is unavailable," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the south. People are turning to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have shrunk with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and authorities say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the war.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative states price gouging.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.